His plate discipline improved as well, as he set a new career best with a 15.1% strikeout rate, fueled by his best SwStr% and Contact% rates yet. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. Donate to FanGraphs. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. What follows is an attempt to find similar players to Heyward using various methods: WAR, offense, defense, and a hybrid of offense and defense. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. The Fascinating Jason Heyward Contract | FanGraphs Baseball I am obligated to mention that Mike Trout still has two more seasons to add to his totals. Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks game thread - True Blue LA Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity. FanGraphs gives fans, front offices a look at the sport's evolution 2023 Updated In-Season Projections Apparently the Dodgers will do anything to keep James Outman on the farm. Jason Heyward Contract Details, Salaries, & Earnings | Spotrac Since Heyward is also the tallest of the four young outfielders at six-foot-five, we have reason to be worried about how long this can hold up for him. Time now for our annual spin through players whose luck in 2022 was worse (or better) than their fortune deserved. If he took the same type of offensive step forward as Carlos Beltran and Reggie Smith, he might win an MVP. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Career statistics and player information from MLB, or ESPN, or Baseball Reference, or Fangraphs, or . by Handedness. by Retrosheet. The general concern around Heyward and defense is twofold. Quite obviously, Im lukewarm on Heyward, and his upside might merit a few dollars more, but Id need to see him take a step forward before I start paying for him as a frontline fantasy cornerstone. Looking solely at defense, these are the types of players who compare with Heyward. Andrelton A. Simmons 198994 18888426 . I think thats in the ballpark. by Handedness, swung at more pitches thrown outside of the strike zone. Currently, Yahoo! . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Hes hit 24 homers the last two years combined. Jason Heyward does not owe Cardinals' fans a thing Here is how they performed over their next ten seasons. Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Prediction: Road to the MLB 2023 Season. Upton, Chris Johnson and Andrelton Simmons, and its worth noting that Justin Upton and Heyward too, for that matter will be a free agent after next year, leaving open the possibility that the Braves could move him if the team decides to rebuild. Buy Low on Jason Heyward | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball He clobbered 27 homers when he was 22. Cubs president Jed Hoyer announced Monday the club intends to release veteran outfielder Jason Heyward from the final year of his deal at the end of the 2022 season. Its not even clear this would be a good thing. The No. by Retrosheet. Whether he finds a home with Cleveland certainly wont depend on whether Quinn can maintain his power output. Looking at the numbers from 26 to 30 in each group, it is understandable why Heywards agents would seek an opt-out clause within the first five years. Heaney added that, in the regular season, he probably wouldnt have thrown that pitch in that situation. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Overall, the group still put up above average numbers offensively. Technically, the entire 1927 Yankees couldnt legally buy a beer, either. Heyward remains a tempting upside guy on draft day, but its hard to bid on him too far beyond the price tag of a No. Lacking in top shelf power, Heyward still provided solid numbers on offense, and after a disappointing start with he Cardinals, he hit .306/.375/.455 with a wRC+ of 130 from the beginning of May to the end of the season. All this before you look at his 11 home runs, easily a career low, less than the 14 he put up in two separate seasons when he averaged just 448 plate appearances. Fantasy Fallout: With Gavin Lux Out, Could A Sleeper Emerge? Im a little stubborn in that way. Jason Heyward as Mike Trout | FanGraphs Baseball Jason Heyward is not immune from those forces, but based on what he has done so far, his future could provide his employer with significant value on one of the biggest contracts in MLB history. It took the Dodgers six games into their Cactus League schedule, but they finally achieved the ultimate spring . So I was like, Im just gonna kind of throw it at him down the middle. And he hit it out. This spring, Heyward has hit 17 grounders, and hes pulled all but one of them. That has something to do with the Angels deciding to play Trout in the corner outfield from time to time, but it also has a lot to do with Heyward having great range for a corner outfielder. . Taylor may also appear at third base in Cactus League games. Jason Heyward - Graphs - - Batting | FanGraphs Baseball Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball. With a 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate, he hit the ball up the elevator shaft more often than any batter with at least 400 plate appearances. He has played in Major League Baseball (MLB) for the Atlanta Braves, St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs. Throw caution to the wind, even. Andrew Heaney is fine with throwing meatballs. 3 outfielder who has yet to prove hes a reliable high-end fantasy option. SUMMARY Thats baserunning without those gaudy stolen bases. Using the players from the chart above, here is how those players played from age 26 through age 30, the first five years of a potential Jason Heyward contract. by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Also keep in mind that ZiPS, Bill James and Oliver dont know that Heyward was taking cuts with a bad shoulder last year; they just see a young guy who struggled after a fantastic rookie year. In particular, Heyward has a .188 BABIP on ground balls. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. What are your Gold Glove predictions for this year? : r/baseball Our premise is that their bad (or Im not all that mad about it. He went second to home on a single. The chart below shows the varying WAR averages from above for Jason Heyward comps at age-26 through age-30, as well as 26-35. Last season was a huge disappointment for the Los Angeles Dodgers, as they were dropped in the NLDS by the rival San Diego Padres. Heyward will get paid. Obviously, Heyward is nowhere near as good as Rodriguez was then, but the argument for blowing the budget to sign him is a similar one. Now, just two years later, weve got Mike Trout and Bryce Harper one-upping them. FanGraphs' Roster Resource has Adrian Sampson in the fifth spot in the rotation, but he has the ability to function as a long reliever/sixth starter if need be. Sources - Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, MLB.com, Baseball Reference. How much will he be worth? Depending how long Rodgers is out of the lineup and whether the Rockies want to let him continue his preparation into the early days of the regular season someone has to play second. His average ranking is 7.5. Carpenter upped his power output, and his grounder pull rate jumped from 53% to 68%. Support FanGraphs. There are not enough players here to draw conclusions, but it might be worth looking into whether good, young defensive players age better overall as hitters. This is how it usually works with increases in pulled grounders: Its a consequence of taking a more power-centric approach. . and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Heyward improved slightly in the years to come but still struggled to get back to the form he showed prior to coming to Chicago. But consider this for a moment: despite those negatives, despite Heyward dealing with a lingering right shoulder injury and despite a 75 point drop in his batting average on balls in play (from .335 to .260), Heyward was still basically a league-average hitter in 2011. - And its easy to identify the problem: Observers wish that Heyward would hit for more power. Double-digit steals is a nice perk for a guy with potentially elite OBP and power numbers. His work for Inside Edge Scouting Services has appeared on ESPN.com and Yahoo.com, and he was a fantasy baseball columnist for Rotoworld from 2009-2010. You could make a strong argument that it was the most impressive performance for a batter under age 21 since The Kid took Seattle by storm back in 1990. A few trade pickups last year are rated highly in 2023. Jason Heyward LAD OF L Born: 08/09/1989 Age: 33 FanGraphs Player Page Auctions are not allowed at this time On MLB 40-man: NO Acquired: Free Agent (CHC) Dec'22 Positions OF Overall Last 10. Everything that could go wrong did, yet he held his own at age 21. It would be a tragedy if nagging injuries keep him from playing to his full potential. Tag: Jason Heyward | Community Blog Jason Heyward: Wiki| Wife| Salary| Fangraphs| World series| Speech All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Averaging out to a league average player for a total of ten years is a decent feat. I was just saying the other day that there hasnt been a free agent whos so valuable in this particular waya combination of very good performance and youthsince A-Rod in 2000. The lowest member of the group, Willie Randolph, still averaged more than three wins per season. Out of 11 players, only Jim Fregosis production would not have justified a $200 million contract. Up for debate is precisely how good Jason Heyward has been during his career, and more importantly for whichever teams signs him this winter, how good Heyward will be moving forward. Effectively Wild Episode 87: Baseball and the BCS/Halladay vs. Lee/Does the Success Cycle Still Exist? Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Even with the extra outside swings, pop ups and grounders, Heyward was likely the victim of some bad bounces. Gift a Membership. However, if we want some sort of hybrid, we can look at the declines of the offensive comps and the defensive comps and combine them. And he continued to hit far too many ground balls (nearly 54 percent of the time he put it in play), limiting his power output (.162 ISO). Latest News/Blog Posts about Jason Heyward. Home run spike shows Statcast science is more potent than steroids But in the previous five years, he had bounced between eight different organizations, unable to find his footing in the majors before an opportunity arose with the Dodgers. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, If Heyward had one or two games where he hit everything the other way, that would make this look way different, and thats why its too early to say anything. As teams expect to get the best production at the beginning of the contract, they understand that a contract will likely underpay the player in the early years and potentially overpay him as he ages with the surplus from the beginning ideally canceling out the loss at the end. If thats something hes really doing, its probably because hes trying to up his power output. That should tell you all you need to know about the Blue Jays plans for their fourth outfield spot, and this assignment is something he plans to grab with both hands. Can you imagine what he would have batted if he had been in the Carolina League or the Pac-12 over the past couple of years? He started 13 games there in 2021 and six last season, but John Schneider is expecting more of a 50-50 split for Biggio between the infield and outfield this season, adding that hell play a ton of outfield. Just like I wanted to see one in there. His 2012 projections are strong From 26 to 35, the group got better offensively and the only player who completely busted was Carey Patterson. Heyward might not be a burner, but he has posted average-ish Speed Scores so far and has rated as an above-average base runner overall. Im sure you dont think about ground-ball pull rate very often, but I like it as an indicator of change. Putting everything together, we still have not placed a value on those wins. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Jason Heyward Powers Down | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball Castellanos hit just .263/.305/.389 for a 94 wRC+ (matching his career-worst mark . Trying to Put a Value on Jason Heyward in Free Agency All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. A recent graduate of Duquesne University, David Golebiewski is a contributing writer for Fangraphs, The Pittsburgh Sports Report and Baseball Analytics. FanGraphs Membership. Even if Heyward were to hit for more power, that might be offset by a drop in singles, or by an increase in strikeouts. But, man oh man, do people ever love to talk about Jason Heyward not hitting for enough power. When signing long-term contracts, teams tend to pay them out equally over the length of the contract. 1 seed Bradley Braves (24-8, 16-4 MVC) square off against the No. Whatever the name, it might become a problem for them. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. Jason Heyward opens baseball academy in Chicago from TrueBlueLA.com at 2/4/2023 5:04:00 AM. Crossword; Sudoku; Crossword; Sudoku _____ About Us 2022 Updated In-Season Projections His BABIP this season is .256, while his expected BABIP sits around .315. But as long as were just having fun here, consider a few numbers. Using a similar exercise, I found only 28 players with at least 25 fWAR and bWAR (FanGraphs WAR and Baseball Reference WAR, respectively) since the end of World War II. Cubs prospect Hayden Wesneski proving he belongs in the big leagues Roberts described Jason Heyward, the former Cub who came to Dodgers camp as a non-roster invite, as more than adequate in the field at center. With the exception of ZiPS, the projection systems (and the fans) see Heyward as more of a .270 hitter with a high OBP and 20-homer power in 2012: ZiPS: .255/.360/.427, 17 HR Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. The Chicago Cubs already boasted one of the best young . Nick Frasso, who had a 1.83 ERA and 76 strikeouts in 54 innings last season, was acquired from the Blue Jays in . Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. by Retrosheet. The Dodgers lost their starting shortstop for the entirety of the 2023 season in the third game of spring training. 2022 600 PA / 200 IP Projections Steamer600. sent RF Jason Heyward on a rehab assignment to Gwinnett Braves. Attempting to measure defense with advanced statistics like UZR and DRS has its critics, and attempting to place a value on it can be difficult. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. That level of production would justify a $200 million contract based on the first five years alone. Bothered by a right shoulder injury that has lingered since spring training and pushed him to the DL in late May, Heyward has yet to reach the double digits in home runs and has drawn criticism from Chipper Jones regarding his ability to play through injuries. Freddie Freeman, and Jason Heyward . ACME Sports | MLB "I've talked . For a big man, he can run a little Instead, Heyward will step into the box for his first post-All-Star at-bat with a .226/.315/.404 triple-slash. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Dodgers' Jason Heyward on new environment that's more his speed 2023 Jason Heyward Projections Crawford debuted young, but due to a team-friendly contract, he did not become a free agent until after his age-28 season, three years older than Heyward. With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Andy Pages emerging, however, could free Taylor up for the infield (we'll talk about him more in a bit). by Retrosheet. The last qualifier hurt more than helped Heyward, as Barry Bonds and Adrian Beltre were removed from the list. Heyward hasn't shown quite the same level of plate discipline this season, as his rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone has increased by about four percentage points (24.2 percent to. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Others call it a slurve or even a whirlybird. It could have something to do with the. After the home run, back in the zone with offspeed pitches. Sadly, the only skill that Heyward hasnt displayed during his bright, brief career is health. Atlanta Braves Rumors - MLB Trade Rumors - Part 276 To isolate players similar to Heyward, I looked for players from 1960 to 2007 within five of Heywards 27.8 WAR and within 20% of his 3429 plate appearances. Notes: PitchCom, Jason Heyward, cold weather Dodgers pitchers are hesitant to use the PitchCom device to call their own pitches. Prior to the . With better luck, health and a little more development, Heyward could be a monster in 2012. Because, even if he did it from the corner outfield, Heyward was able to emulate the Angelic newcomer in a way. 1 day ago. There are few who doubt that, after finishing up his sixth season in Major League Baseball, Jason Heyward is a good player. dodgersnation.com - Jeff Snider 10h Read more on dodgersnation.com by Retrosheet. Maybe hed find a different path to a familiar destination. According to Statcast, Walker registered a sprint speed of 28.5 feet per second with 30 feet per second being considered elite-level speed usually reserved for middle infielders and cat-quick centerfielders. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors Heyward is coming off his age-21 season, having just turned 22 this past August. The coaches that were working with me were trying to get me to throw a sinker because sometimes my fastball sinks, Oviedo said. Updated: Saturday, March 4, 2023 4:51 PM ET, Park Factors by Handedness, 2007 June Amateur Draft - Round: 1, Pick: 14, Overall: 14, Team: Atlanta Braves. Unfortunately, for studying purposes anyway, there simply are not enough of those types of players to look at. The Dodgers announced Thursday that they've signed free-agent outfielder Jason Heyward to a minor league contract and invited him to Major League Spring Training. Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Here are their total numbers from age 26 through age 35, a total of ten seasons per player. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Interestingly, although Heyward swung less frequently than in any season since his 2010 debut, he finished with a 10.3% walk rate thats below his career average and set a new personal low for pitches per plate appearance. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Ive pulled some images from Baseball Savant. Ultimate Foul Balls - Jason Heyward - Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. While the $330 million figure is likely the one that jumps out, I would direct your attention to the smallest number: $159 million. Ottoneu Fantasy Baseball - playercard - FanGraphs Staff Two - Jason Heyward With all this hype Im still trying to figure out why the Braves basically gave this guy away?? Heyward, a .211-hitter in 2021 and 2022, made significant swing changes over the winter. I looked through age 25, but lacking enough comps, expanded the age range to 26 years old. But thats never safe against a hitter like Betts, who launched it deep over the left-center-field wall at Surprise Stadium. He recently contributed an article on Mike Stanton's slugging to The Hardball Times Annual 2012. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Yet, its difficult to project just how hell play during the rest of the season.